Yuck. Bulldawg Illustrated Season Preview Issue, BI Print Edition Issue 1, 2018 – Calling All Smart Dawgs, LATEST PRINT ISSUE FOR NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: This is Our Destiny. This result, along with Baylor's win over 31-12 win over Kansas State to remain undefeated, reinforces the fact that the Big 12 is basically Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor … and then basically everyone else. There is nothing wrong with 16 yards passes and most of those would count towards an advance box score’s explosiveness rate. If we're looking at the differential, Atlanta is third with +19, behind New Orleans (+25) and Pittsburgh (+20). Click below to watch, and comment on the videos as well. To highlight some of these examples, I have created another WePlayed Highlight Reel. It doesn't matter how many they have if you don't provide information to figure out the net amount. In 2017, without one of the game’s best quarterbacks for most of the season, the Packers were a truly bad team according to NETXP: Only the Giants, Dolphins and Colts finished with a worse NETXP than the Packers in 2017, and they finished dead last in their division, a full 26 explosive plays behind the Detroit Lions. Two bumped the odds to a near-certain 80%. CLICK HERE TO WATCH EXAMPLES OF EXPLOSIVE PLAYS IN 2018, Our in game analysis and discussion as Boston College takes on Clemson. The game remained tight throughout, mostly because of Cincinnati's havoc on defense. In this analysis, we take care to eliminate explosive plays that don’t actually help teams. Both Hundley and Rodgers averaged about a single explosive running play per game in 2017.

His presence helped the Packers make the NFL’s second-biggest jump in NETXP behind the New York Giants, even without added contributions from the defense: The Packers could be in line for another jump in 2019.

New Haven, CT. As you likely saw in the lead-up to the game, Auburn and Florida had not played one another since 2011.

Short answer? For the purpose of this Playlist, I went with the most conservative definition of explosive plays, 30 yards on a pass and 20 yards on a run. And that difference can largely be explained by just two explosive plays. The first was on Florida's opening possession, where the Gators hit a 64-yard pass to Freddie Swan. The Buckeyes weren't as overwhelmingly dominant as they had been in the first five games of the season, but their ability to adjust to the Spartans' early defensive success suggests that they should be able to do the same against similarly excellent defenses from Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan. While there, he pioneered many of the statistical analyses we see on TV broadcasts, and his insights helped the Vikings and Packers find advantages during their games. Turnovers played a big role as Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders threw three picks and lost two fumbles.

In Green Bay, like the rest of the league, explosive plays led to winning football. Moving next door to the Big Ten, Michigan State somewhat successfully dragged Ohio State into an uglier game than the Buckeyes wanted to play -- but they still lost 34-10. He has the ability to go through an entire progression from the pocket, and consistently deliver an accurate, on time pass. The Power Sweep uses stats like explosive plays to help our readers become smarter Packers fans. If you look at it, statistically the teams that are getting the chunk plays, the explosive (plays), those are the teams that are going to produce more yards, more points. That's not a huge difference in explosiveness rate, but average EPA (which accounts for how successful a play was in addition to just a binary success or failure) tells more of the story. Things couldn't have started worse for Michigan State, who fumbled on their first two possessions, but Ohio State only managed a single field goal out of the two short fields. One of the things that stuck out in the press conference after the SEC Championship was Coach talking about the lack of explosive plays on offense. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. It was an exciting week even if there weren't a lot of upsets. Otherwise the two teams were mostly equal as Texas Tech's 0.01 average EPA was only marginally better than Oklahoma State's -0.08. Please review for your knowledge. “So we did a formula called a linear regression, and what the results of the study revealed was, to significantly affect the probability of scoring on a single drive, you needed a passing gain of 16 yards or greater and a running gain of 12 yards or greater. That is significantly different from how most analytics chart and count explosive plays. But it wasn't going to last forever. Cincinnati was similarly inefficient, but had a few big plays on offense (and fewer very negative plays) that brought up their average EPA (still negative, at -0.17). It seems that every website has their own definition of it. Here are UGA’s top ten explosive plays from 2019. The other upset was Texas Tech taking down Oklahoma State 45-35 behind quarterback Jett Duffey's 424 passing yards (47% passing EPA success rate, half a standard deviation above the mean in passing EPA).

Stanford quarterback Davis Mills, the former top-rated pro-style quarterback in the 2017 class, had a big day with 293 passing yards, a 0.32 average passing EPA (two-thirds of a standard deviation above the mean), and a 59% passing EPA success rate. According to Fickell, "The only way you're going to knock off the best is to continue to be aggressive.

One takeaway here is that Luke Fickell seems destined for an even bigger job. What EPA (expected points added) metric intends to do is add value to all plays and track them for analysis’s sake. Everyone has the capability to bust a long run or long play from the quarterbacks to the tight ends, running backs and receivers. For the purpose of this Playlist, I went with the most conservative definition of explosive plays, 30 yards on a pass and 20 yards on a run. Teams which achieve a +2 advantage in explosive plays (2 explosive plays or more) win the game 80-85 percent of the time. One sure way to rack up yards, score points, and win games is by creating explosive plays. Watching Boston College in 2018, you may get stuck remembering all those ground and pound moments where the Eagles would hand the ball to a running back for three yards, or Anthony Brown struggling at points, but looking back through the season they did have a remarkable amount of big explosive plays no matter what metric is used. For instance, if a team needs 18 yards on fourth down and nets 17 with a pass, that play doesn’t qualify as explosive in our metric. This number is based on a lot a math calculated by people smarter than me and based on literally hundreds of thousands of plays and outcomes. I am looking forward to another season of blogging about stats for Bulldawg Illustrated. Some of the guys over at DawgSports and I have created a web show talking about UGA stats, plays, and schemes called the “Battle Hymnal.”  So, after you have checked out “One on One” on BI’s YouTube channel, drop in and see what we have cooked up. Jacob Eason had an off night, finishing with a 34.2% passing EPA success rate, despite connecting with Aaron Fuller for 171 yards on nine catches (83% of total receiving yards). Early this season, Jon wrote how the Packers had become irrelevant despite the return of Aaron Rodgers after a broken collarbone in 2017: The Packers aren’t bad enough to be a truly bad team. You know, speed and athleticism on offense. Check Out Today's Daily Dawg Thread Updates. A lot has happened since the last time UGA played a meaningful down. ... Haskins is the definition of an “NFL Style” quarterback. So what is the correct definition of an explosive play? So that became our line of demarcation.". Speaking of Michigan, but now without the offensive success! The Gators had explosive plays (10-plus- runs or 15-plus-yard passes) on 9.7% of plays, while Auburn was at 8.5%.

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